Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Tactical decision making in action; a cascade of consequences

No plan survives a battle but to go into battle without a plan is just as foolish as trying to stick to the original plan.  To do well as a tactician you've got to adapt to the state of the field.  So, for this entry I'm going to dissect exactly ONE fight from the Norcalia vs effectively Wardens fight that happened at War of Wrath.  You SHOULD be able to see the video here - https://www.facebook.com/alexys.oosterhouse/posts/10154832353712668.  I'll be referencing moments by time stamps on the video.  The obvious caveats apply, this is only my opinion and I can't see the whole field from the view of the camera, so I may miss things in my analysis.

-8:05 - 8W vs 8N
At the outset the Wardens line up with their fastest flankers on the right side, clearly preparing to try and run that side.  Steel sits in back, prepared to strike through any gaps that appear in the middle of the line, run down enemy flankers and generally organize the group.  The fighters on the far left tend towards a more defensive alignment, using artificer as a red to buy time and give the rest of the group time to work.  As an interesting sidenote Nos (sp?) who normally runs florentine on an edge is in the middle of the line.  Assessing the situation from the outside I'm expecting that their main tactic is to use the right side to try and pull the Norcalian line thin to provide opportunities to flank the center of the line.

Norcalia meanwhile runs mostly a counter position to this.  The enemy flanker (Brian) fighting florentine is set up against a fleet of foot spear in Kord.  He's supported by Shato to prevent him from being rushed, while also allowing for a roughly equivalent opponent to Rob/Stark who is there to support Brian.  Zayl takes up the far right to counter artificer, his greater reach with his polearm should allow him to do work.  If there's a rush Marrow who is good at fighting in close is prepared to counter engage with a vengeance.  Gibs sits in the center of the line next to force who could quite easily punch a hole in a line.  Asher floats out back prepared to engage Steel or anyone else who might get around.

At this moment and time I feel like the Norcalian team has the advantage.

-8:00 - 8W vs 7N

Mistakes are made.  Zayl, who is prepare to fight artificer suddenly finds himself ALSO fighting Anastasia, wielding a spear behind her board.  This means that even though he may have the advantage against Artificer at the outset, for every swing he takes he now has to worry about getting stabbed by two, rather then by one pole.  This also cuts of his advantage from a having a support, as Ana's defense is high enough that rushing her is unlikely to get a quick kill.  Additionally this means rolling directly into Fenrir who is standing right next to her.  Since the main board on that side is Marrow he's going to have a rough time of it, choosing to either try to cover his pole fighting two on one, or engaging and then having to fight 2v1 himself when Ana drops the spear.

Seeing this advantage, Nos moves to the outside to back up his flankers.  Meanwhile on the Norcalian left side Kord takes a few BIG steps away from Shato, meaning that suddenly he is without any kind of real support.  Meanwhile Asher, seeing the trouble that his right side is on moves in that direction to assist, further cutting off any hope of support for the Norcalian left.

At this moment I expect that the Norcalian left side is going to waffle.  After Brian runs the spear he can turn on Shato, along with Nos and Rob.  Since it becomes a 3v1 with angles I'm expecting Shato to lose, and quickly (I would too).  With the Norcalian left side broken the they'll have to retreat into the right side, which is already briefly outmatched.  Unless the Norcalian line can rotate to switch angles they're going to have the door closed on them.

- 7:56 - 8W vs 7N

Mistakes are made, but this time by the Wardens.  Brian runs the spear without taking injury and then turns to fight Shato.  Nos and Rob turn to fight Force who is now at the end of the Norcalian left flank.  If it were my call I'd leave Nos to stall against Force while Rob and Brian 2v1'd Shato in order to try and get a quick advantage.  Then they could fight Force 3v1 instead of 2v1.  Meanwhile Artificer is legged, effectively taking him out of combat as the rest of the Wardens move forward.  Zayl, having taken no injury now has advantage again on that side of the field, having to only outrange Ana's spear while still maintaining cover from his shieldman.  Karps moves up on Ana's right side, prepared to engage but is going to run directly into gibs.  If he goes too hard on offense he'll leave Ana undefended for Twig to engage who can in turn then rotate onto the Norcalian left flank which is right now in a bad place.  Additionally if Gibbs can win his fight then the right side goes from a 2v3 to a 4v3 or a 3v3 if either Force or Shato survive.  Steel meanwhile does the right thing and goes hard into the Norcalian right side hoping to take advantage of the chaos.  Unfortunately Asher is moving to intercept so that decision is likely to cost him some limbs.  If he gets legged in the near future then the Wardens left flank is utterly lost, and it will become a fight between the mobile Norcalian right flank against the Wardens mobile right flank with a bunch of Warden gimps not actually participating in the fight.  That fight eventually goes to Norcalia if Zayl can stay alive and uninjured.  At this point the fight is even and it's up to each of about 3 individual engagements to determine the winner.  If Shato beats Brian, he can back the 2v1 on Force.  If Force can stay alive long enough then he'll have help, but if he dies quickly then the Norcalian force will be getting smashed from 3 sides and that's as good as done.  If Brian wins his fight but Force survives then that side of the field is a draw.  If anyone can get Steel's leg then the pressure to the front and right side of the Norcalian line disappears, which makes the fight a much better place for the Norcalians.

-7:52 - 7W vs 7N

A lot can happen in 4 seconds lol.  Brian loses the fight to Shato and is taken off the board.  A rush is attempted against Force but fails.  Twig loses his leg to Ana, preventing any further aggression on his part.  Meanwhile Steel and Asher square off.  At this moment the fight is pretty even.  Whoever gets a kill on the Norcalian's left flank or the Warden's right flank will have a numbers advantage and can then wrap.  If Steel can get through Asher then his team will have advantage again because he'll be able to apply pressure from a new angle.  However, if he loses outright and Asher has all of his limbs then he'll be able to turn the battle around by apply his OWN pressure to a relatively immobile pole arm.  If someone goes to cover Artificer then the cente rof the line breaks, giving Gibbs a chance to still run the line.  But, even if Asher doesn't get a hard engage, even a harass will turn artificer, leaving him vulnerable to attacks by Zayl.

-7:50 - 7W vs 7N

Zayl, seeing that his side is stable switches to the Norcalian left flank, to help deal with the encroaching enemy flank.  This leaves a speed bumps on the Norcalian right flank in the form of relatively immobile shields.  The fight between Asher and Steel becomes more important while some of the pressure is relieved for the Norcalian left flank, as they now have the ability to hit opponents without worry about losses.  This gives them the advantage on this section of the field, and theoretically the advantage overall as the Warden's group has opted to leave their polearm behind in order to press the Norcalians who are starting to back themselves into a corner.  Karps has also taken injury at this point (I missed how) meaning that a legged twig is a very sufficient guard.  Gibbs in the meantime see's a hole forming and prepares to shoot the gap.  Artificer meanwhile tries to limp himself closer to the fight.

-7:47 - 7W vs 7N

The Norcalians, seeing opportunity, seize it.  Marrow and Gibbs hard engage into the enemy team.  Gibbs shoots passed Karp who is holding only a shield while Twig swings at him.  Marrow hard engages into the polearm, while Fenrir moves over to cover.  Depending on Marrow's reflexes he may be able to turn that into a 2v1 fight.  Meanwhile on the Norcalian left flank there's a relatively even 3v3, but with both lines now broken the next few seconds are crucial to find out which team receives more damage from breaking ranks.

- 7:44 - 6W vs 7N

The Norcalian gambit mostly pays dividends.  Fenrir, in an attempt to save Artificer gets knocked over by Gibbs and executed.  Meanwhile Marrow doesn't do as well, even though he's able to set up the kill on Fenrir he fails to kill Artificer who in turn takes his leg.  Twig, unfortunately is now shafted, fighting 2v1 without cover against both Ana and Nos.  Steel, now seeing his back line getting run over turns to break from his fight with Asher to try and score some backs.  Zayl becomes quickly irrelevant to the fight for the moment as Rob disengages leaving Shato and Zayl not engaging anyone while their teammates fight in other areas of the field.  Still too close to figure out who has advantage as Twig may be about to die, as well as Marrow, which negate their brief one person advantage.

-7:43 - 6W vs 6N

Marrow gets run over as he gets trapped by multiple opponents.  An injured Force moves to assist Twig, taking the pressure off of him even as Nos moves over to deal with the still flanking Gibbs.  Steel crashes in from behind, completing a 3 way trainwreck for Marrow but also positioning himself to be chased by Asher who he turned his back to and by Gibbs who is still alive and off to the side.

-7:41 - 5W vs 6N

The battle is mostly over at this moment.  Steel gets himself sandwhiched between Gibbs and Asher and because he's blocking shots from Asher gets taken out by Gibbs (I think? It's a bit fuzzy).  Meanwhile Force wins a hard engage against Ana who is unable to spear him leaving Nos potentially in a 3 way pinch between Force, Asher and Gibbs in a second.  The Norcalian left flank can now reform with Shato, Twig and Zayl alive to tank up against Rob who no longer has any support from his team.

- 7:40 - 5W vs 6N

Gibbs piles into an unarmed Karp while Nos moves to back Gibbs and Asher moves to back Nos.   Artificer engages a legged Twig but leaves his back to Force.  We can't see what's happening on with Shato, Rob and Zayl.

- 7:39 - 3W vs 4N

Asher makes a clutch "watch your back" call which causes Gibbs to block behind him.  In the meantime Shato shows up for the fight pilling directly into Artificer who is now as good as dead.  Gibbs falls to Nos and Artificer falls to Shato.  On the other side of the field, Zayl who no longer has cover gets run over by Rob.

- 7:35 - 3W vs 4N

The initial rush from both teams over the groups reform into lines.  Up on Norcalia, an injured Twig and Force with an uninjured Shato and Asher.  On Wardens an injured and swordless Karp, and an uninjured Rob and Nos.  At this moment there's a slight edge for Norcalia at this moment but it's by no means insurmountable.  At this moment the battle is effectively a 3v2 as Twig can't move to engage and Karp can't swing to kill anyone.  If the Norcalians fight together rather then go aggro then they can take effectively a 4v2 fight instead, using angles to their advantage.

- 7:30 - 3W vs 4N

Good on you Norcalia.  Norcalia groups up forcing an engage into an effective 4v2 for the Wardens.

- 7:23 - 3W vs 4N

Karps arms himself, removing his shield from the wall, and Asher grabs a spear, giving them a sudden extra surge of advantage with gear.  Now, assuming he doesn't move to the outside they can poke at the opposing team without having to worry about injury.  However... if Asher moves off on his own he runs the risk of being run over, potentially taking their advantage and making it an even fight again.

-7:18 -  3W vs 4N

Asher, as a polearm, steps to the outside and away from his support becoming a bit zealous and costing him his legs.  Pro tip.  If you're a polearm, don't be on the edge of the line, always have cover.  Also, avoid overextending, be patient.  If you have the numbers advantage get them to rush you INTO YOUR TEAMMATES, rather then into your defenseless self.  Asher calls for help which possibly negates more damage.  At this point though he's less effectively a part of the battle and now Norcalia can no longer maneuver because their mobile fighters no longer match or outnumber the enemy team.

-7:14 - 3W vs 4N

Asher manages to be away from his support while legged.

-7:11 - 3W vs 4N

Now that Norcalia is effectively immobilized the Wardens move in for a 3 way pinch.  In an ideal situation Asher rotates with Shato so that Shato can move, or Shato hard engages Karps while Force turns around to support Asher.  In any case Shato needs to be able to move as he is presently their most mobile and least injured combatant.  If he gets stuck in the pinch then Norcalia will lose as he gets hit from 3 directions in spite of his potential advantage over at least Karps.

-7:07 - 3W vs 4N

Asher drops his support weapon and becomes a melee combatant, relieving the pressure on the right side.  Force gets engaged as Twig rotates to cover Shato's back.  Edge probably Norcalia, as Force's chance of survival against an armored, florentine Nos with one arm already gone seems unlikely.  There's enough pressure everywhere else to give him time for that engage.  Miraculously however Force wins his fight, taking an arm off Nos while no one else takes injury.

-7:04/6:59 - 3W vs 3N

Nos hard engages onto Asher but not without first drawing the attention of both Force and Shato who aren't fast enough to save Asher.  Things are now looking very bad for Norcalia as Shato has to win fight against Rob outright, or take out the other two gimps in order to make the fight advantaged again.  Even though it's technically even, because Twig is legged Wardens actually have the advantage.

- 6:51 - 3W vs 3N

Lines reform.

- 6:41 -

Rob looks for an engage on Force because of his limb advantage, while Shato rotates into a similar position against Karps/Nos.

- 6:40 - 2W vs 3N

Rob doesn't hard engage, but Shato does, taking out Karps and regaining Norcalian advantage.

- 6:36 - 2W vs 2N

Wardens seek a 2v1 engage on Shato and Force jumps into the fray to try and make it a 2v2, lining up for Nos's back.  The 2v1 quickly turns on Force who gets a leg off Rob before dying.  This turns out to be crucial as it's now the Wardens who are largely immobile since Nos doesn't want to fight Shato 1v1 as Shato is still uninjured.  This allows Twig to move in for a pinch, since even though he's legged he's still going to be harder to kill then the injured Nos.

- 6:26 - 2W vs 2N

As Rob engages with Twig, Shato creeps into the fight, eventually lining up a hard engage by pressuring Nos away from the gimp fight.  Neither side gets any hits though there are a few close calls and they reset to pick at each other.  At this moment Norcalia has the advantage because they have higher defense overall.

-6:20 - 1W vs 2N

Eventually as shots go back and forth Shato wins the fight against Nos, leaving Rob in a dire situation.  Though, had Nos won the fight would have turned the other way, or if Rob had taken out twig it would have become largely an even fight still.  At this moment though you have a flat footed, injured boardsman fighting in a 2v1 so that's likely the match.

-6:14 - 1W vs 2N

Rob manages to take a leg, preventing the Norcalian team from using positioning against him the way they would otherwise have (one behind him, one in front).  It still remains a 2v1.

-6:10- 0W vs 2N

With nowhere to go and two people closing on him Rob eventually falls.

--

All in all a good fight for both teams.  Both Norcalia and Wardens made some mistakes but were also good at trying to cover one another as well as punish their opponents for mistakes.  In the end there's quite a few moments where things could have turned very badly for one or the other team.  While field awareness and team tactics are very important in many cases the battle is decided one fight at a time.  Crucial things, like Force getting a leg shot on his way out dramatically change the dynamics of the team fight.

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