Tactical Analysis 2

This video https://www.facebook.com/alexys.oosterhouse/posts/10154832353712668 starting at -6:08

After the last round both team have spread WAY out wide with Wardens taking a horseshoe shape (pushing on the far right and left at an angle relative to the rest of the line).  Their polearms are all also stacked on the left potentially giving them the ability to add more pressure to that side.  Norcalia as far as I can tell is set up the same as last time, except with Kord positioned one person in instead of on the far outside.  Theoretically a horseshoe formation has advantage if they are able to keep applying pressure.  A horseshoe is countered by pulling the ends of the line too far out so that they can be killed quickly (ganked henceforth) without suffering a loss or injury.  Otherwise the angles provided by flanking grant advantage to the team pushing with angles.

-6:05 to -6:02 8Nv8W

I lied.  Kord is still out on the end of the line and gets rushed by Brian.  This time however Brian does NOT make the rush as Kord retreats back into Shato.  This creates a local 2v1 advantage on Rob/Stark who, moments later Ascher also moves in to create a 3v1 hoping for a gank.  If they can get that gank without any further complications this is a HUGE swing for Norcalia as they can then take that +3 person advantage and slam it down the rest of the Wardens flank.

-6:01 8Nv7W

Nope.  Ascher has momentum and swings past Stark while neither of the other two aggress meaning that a theoretical advantage is completely discarded.  Moments later Force trades a leg with Nos further nullifying any potential advantage as Ascher swings back around looking for backs.  Leaving the left side of the Norcalian line in a good position... but not providing the domino they could otherwise have had.  Having lost no other members of the group this fight is still going Norcalia's way so far though.

-5:58 to -5:51 7N v 5W

It's hard to tell EXACTLY what happens here but basically both lines collapse in on each other after Stark rushes for the center of the Norcalian line which has pushed past his present location.  He runs in to back someone and Ascher follows him behind.  The trade doesn't pan out.  Norcalia takes a leg and loses Shato.  Wardens lose Nos, Karps and a leg on their polearm who also came with the rush.  With their polearm legged and now surrounded by gimps and an enemy support weapon, and with his line on the other side of the field it seems unlikely he'll live, let alone score any additional damage meaning that at this point it's essentially a 7v4 which is HUGELY in Norcalia's favor.

-5:48 4N v 3W

Artificer falls to being backed and the Norcalian group reforms now fighting as one conglomerate of 4 against the remaining 3 Wardens.  On the other side of the field apparently Marrow and Tarkus traded for Fenrir which means that Wardens trade up on that side.  Forming a 4v3 is partially in Wardens favor.  Although they are outnumbered all of them have legs while only 2 of the Norcalians can say the same.

-5:34 4N v 3W

In a crucial moment Kord repositions in order to avoid being backed by Stark, however, he does so without communicating to Ascher who is now standing, ALONE in a 2v1 with Stark behind him.  This does not bode well for the Norcalians.  Steel, seeing the opportunity that he has had handed to him immediately moves to capitalize.

-5:33 4N v 3W

Steel moves faster then Ana carrying the polearm, Ascher dodges away from the fight and Stark pursues but doesn't aggress, setting up a 2v1 that's slow while turning his back to the gimps and Kord.

-5:31 4N v 2W

Steel gets tagged in the back by Kord effectively nullifying the Wardens ability to further pinch and apply pressure, at least until Ana switches out her weapon set.

-5:31 to -5:30 3N v 2W

It seems like for a second there's some confusion and so even though Kord has landed his shot he doesn't regroup with Ascher, nor does Ascher take the moment he is out of the 2v1 to aggress on either the isolated board or support weapon.  Moments later Kord goes down, lacking any further support from his allies while standing in between two enemies.

-5:20 3N v 2W

Ascher regroups and Ana swaps to sword and board so she and Stark can work 2v1 angles on the legged Norcalia group.  At this point it's anyone's game.

-5:11 3N v 2W

Ascher attempts to feint out the Wardens to hard engage.  They aren't biting (which is good because that'd be a terrible idea).

-5:00 3N v 2W

Ascher decides to engage them by stepping too far away from his gimped companions.  His fight decides the outcome of the battle if this rolls forward as is.

-4:43 3N v 2W

Ana can't find a good opening so she rotates back to a spear, presumably to try to stab Ascher who is willing to fight outside of the cover of his teammates.

-4:32 3N v 2W

In response Ascher switches to sword and board which is stronger against a spear then florentine and prepares to hard engage as soon as the 2 Wardens begin to aggress.

-4:23 2N v 2W

Ascher gets stabbed after a shot ramps off his shield while he's low.  Now the victors are LIKELY the Norcalians as they can simply siege until the spear finds its mark.

-3:59 1N v 1W

Stark goes for Gibbs back and finds it, but is taken out by Force at this moment as well.  This theoretically takes an uneven fight and makes it even again as a single spear is unlikely to do much against a sword and board fighter even if they're given a long time to poke at them.

-3:52 1N v 1W

Sword and board vs Sword and board as Ana and Force get to decide the outcome.  Ana has advantage in this scenario as Force prefers to be an offensive fighter but now doesn't have the legs to aggress with, whereas Ana is quite comfortable being patient and picking shots so this fight favors her.

-3:43 0N v 1W

Ana trades her leg for Forces leg taking the win for Wardens.