Sizing up your opponent.

Pre-amble

After a certain level of experience you begin to be pretty adept at identifying exactly how long someone has been fighting or at the very least their relative level of skill to yours.  Being able to eyeball an opponent and quickly identify what they can and can't do is pretty important.  This tactical analysis is also necessary in order to identify what shots you think you can actually land on your opponent.  Having a wide variety of shots doesn't mean you need to throw all of them all of the time.  Certain shots work better on certain targets but having a ton of shots to choose from means you'll usually find at least one you think will hit.  Being able to tell a person's skill at a glance will also stop your from getting chumped by someone you've never seen before.

A good fighter has a good foundation (build from the ground up)

The first thing I notice for an opponent is where they've placed their feet.  When I teach a new person how to fight I always start from the ground up because if a person isn't standing in the right place then it doesn't matter if they know how to swing or block.  Your feet are the first piece of range control which makes sure that when you swing you're in range to hit your target, and also makes sure that if you have a reasonable guard you don't just give up free targets like your back.  So when I look at a fighter I want to get a sense of how well their weight is distributed. 

A new person won't have stance of any kind.  Their legs will usually cross planes (you can draw a straight line from one leg to the other).  This means that either they're totally flat footed (left foot is parallel to their right foot) or they're stacked front foot directly in front of their back foot, which means they have no lateral movement.  In the case where they're flat footed I know that if I step in and swing I'm almost guaranteed to land a shot anywhere their guard isn't.  If the person has their feet stacked then it's likely that if I step sideways or in a 45 degree angle towards them I'll have ample access to shots that bypass their guard (break their line, if you know that terminology) because even though there forward and backwards movement may be quick they have no guard to their sides.

Assuming they aren't incompetent most fighters stack their weight either forward or backwards depending on their tendencies as fighters.  A person who has their weight and usually their weapons forward is more likely to aggress.  A person who has their weight towards their back foot is more likely a defensive fighter and I can expect that they're waiting for counterblows, or are look for an opportunity to try and bullrush me.  In either case the fighter in a back stance tends to be very susceptible to 45 degree angle footwork.  A person who is super aggressive by contrast is more likely to die by careful forward movement because they'll overextend, all things being equal (if your opponent is better then you are these details may not matter, conversely if they're worse you may still win with poor form or poor strategy).

Chickenwings are delicious

Anyone who has spent almost any amount of time fighting me knows that my favorite shot is "the chicken wing" it's a shot to the area between the elbow and the wrist thrown to the top of the arm.  If you know how to cheese that opening it can make for a great feint, especially if someone thinks that you're new.  The reason why is because most new fighters haven't learned a guard that actually protects their arm.  They simply hold the weapon in front of them, unaware of whatever angles they cover or defend with their arm.  Sometimes a new fighter will pick up a shield before learning to correct this error so you'll see sword and board fighter, often who aren't that new, who still display the chicken wing target area. 

The difference between that as a bait and an actual error tends to be degree.  If a person is just barely showing the chicken wing, then likely it's deliberate.  On the other hand... if both arms have chicken wing targets that are wide open then your opponent probably has no idea that they're so exposed.  A quick double tap to the sword arm and they're finished.  Conversely a more veteran fighter is likely to have that area either completely covered or just uncovered enough to make it juicy.  If a person looks like they have that area covered... then don't swing for that area.  Find a way to aim to the opposite side first to bait out a shot or move their guard.  Alternately aim higher or lower then their standard guard to try and open up some shots.

CON-FIDENCE

A more veteran fighter has a sort of quiet confidence about how they handle themselves on the field.  They know how to stand, where to stand, what they're doing and who they want and don't want to get into a fight with.  A new person... has none of that.  They either run recklessly towards the enemy with no semblance of strategy or restraint OR they're very nervous and tend to shy away from a direct confrontation.  If a person is running headlong at you with no thought of defense then they're probably vulnerable to a strike to their torso.  If a person is hesitant to fight you then you can just press into them.  If you move forward faster then they move backwards they'll tend to seize up and stop moving.  Alternately if you want to just break through a line, keep walking them backwards until they aren't protecting their teammates and then run the line.  Chances are good they won't chase after you.

Conversely if a veteran gives ground they tend to do so very deliberately and they only give as much ground as they need to.  If you try to simply run past them, even if they've retreated, they will almost certainly back you (unless you just run much faster then they do).  Also a veteran who engages very aggressively tends to do so with their guard up, rather then just flailing.  If you panic and start throwing shots before they've made it to the range they're closing to chances are good that you've opened yourself up which plays into their hands.  When dealing with an aggressive vet try and counter their motion by taking steps in the opposite direction.  If I move in at 45 degrees to my right, then you should step away at 45 degrees to my left.  If I step straight in, you step straight back, etc, etc.  Just make sure that you keep resetting the fight so that you deny the vet whatever angle they wanted to get on you.  (Re-read the section on guard for why that matters).

Fighting by the numbers

A new fighter (a few months in) tends to approach awkwardly, they have usually just one or two swords and have their back arched forward so that their shoulders and back are visible from the front.  As they go to swing they telegraph their strike by having a huge windup and by looking at exactly where they're going to swing.  ...So I hit them twice in the arm before they even begin to swing and then block to the area they were looking at.

At a year or two of experience they may have a board but still haven't learned to guard for their arm or their back because, even though their footwork has improved some and their guard now exists, they haven't fixed some of the underlying problems with their body mechanics.  They still look at where they're going to swing, they still telegraph the swing with a giant windup.  Also, for reasons I still don't understand, they highly prefer swinging at the front leg.  ..So, I block the shot that they were going to throw, step to within range, and then hit them in the back or shoulders by going up and over their shield.  At this stage in their development a full wrap is usually unnecessary and an angled slash or a half wrap is sufficient to pick the shoulder.

When they hit about 3 years of experience they've finally learned to not lean over and though their list of available targets to swing at hasn't changed much they no longer stare at their target nor do they have as much of a windup.  But they still have some windup, and they still do look at the target they're swinging at they just don't make it quite as obvious.  Additionally while may have learned to aim at the arm and the back those shots are slow so they still tend to prefer throwing for the leg first they just now follow up with a shot to your back.  I can either block the leg and return to the back, this time with a half/flat wrap or a full wrap, or I can change my engagement range ever so slightly so they reach for the leg and then hit them in their sword arm. 

By the time they hit 5 years of experience they've stopped being an easy target (even at my own now 14 years of fighting).  By now that person has developed a proper guard.  They have a variety of different shots that they can throw, and they do so at a reasonable speed.  They do still tend to have a moment of windup and they also look, at least in the general vicinity of their target.  Unlike the 3 year fighter though having additional shot selection means that although I know what general area they're throwing to, I don't actually know what shot they're throwing.  Still, this fighter tends to have some slop.  Their shots aren't as accurate or fast as my own, and they have a second of delay between their shots and their blocks.  Combos at this point usually work pretty well, as does punishing their sword arm when they swing because they leave themselves exposed briefly.  Also, the fact that they telegraph where they're swinging first tends to give me a moment to react and re-position.  If a person has learned footwork correctly than it's likely that by this point there are no holes in it.  However if a person HASN'T learned proper footwork by now, it's likely to never be fixed, and this leads me to the exploits listed in the footwork section.

At 10 years of fighting my opponent is usually indistinguishable from myself unless they haven't been fighting actively for that period of time.  The shot selection they had at 5 years has grown and almost all of the slop that's been on their shots is gone as they've had years to hone each one of them.  Additionally, where they look is no longer a good indicator of where their shots will land because by now they've likely learned how to chain shots and put them together.  Typically by now their footwork is pretty damn good, meaning that there is no longer an easy exploit, and I also have to be wary of their aggressive footwork on me.  However, at this stage I tend to have more shots than they do still, and my - now a triple tap - also tends to give me more shots than they have.  I tend to win those exchanges by simply having a higher shot volume than my opponent.  They are ready to block the first few shots but then get overwhelmed when the last 3 come in and their guard degrades.  These fighters also tend to be more susceptible to feints since they now know what most shots look like, so trying to juke them out often ends in my favor.

At something like 30 years of fighting you get another breed of fighter.  These are your 40-50 year olds who have managed to stay in good enough shape to continue to melee instead of retiring to archery.  They know every shot I know and than an entire order of magnitude more shots than that.  They also tend not to be susceptible to feints to the point where they punish me for trying to throw a feint.  Baits also don't work on a fighter of this caliber.  Typically, when I score a kill on such an individual it's one of 3 things.  1) overwhelming offense.  I manage to tie up their weapon and get all up in their grill where I throw a barrage of shots until I manage to break their line and bypass their guard.  2) I catch them trying to do something fancy.  As vets get older and have more and more shots at their disposal they'll pick up some ones for flare that they do to feel cool.  Every so often they'll think they have your number and you can catch them when they try a particularly cool looking trick shot.  3) I badly outfootwork them.  Fighting as you get older takes a hell of a toll on your body and if you don't learn to go at 80% instead of 110% you'll grind your body down in no time.  Some of the older fighters have long ago destroyed their legs over the course of fighting and as a result are susceptible to footwork.  By moving quickly into and out of range you can either score a lucky shot, or catch them out when they go to swing at you.  In either case... it's rough.

There's more to it then numbers...

All of these are generic fighters at a certain level of years.  There are also plenty of all stars for their particular time in fighting.  Many fighters who started when they were 16 and are something like late 20's or early 30's have the level of fitness of a young person but with the level of skill of an older fighter.  That having been said you can still use the metrics above to try and figure out where their level of skill lies.  If a person has clean swings and good footwork but has only been fighting for a year... treat them like a 5 year fighter, just in case.  If a person has been fighting 30 years but doesn't display any footwork and has a bad guard, it's likely that you can treat them like a 3 year fighter because they've haven't been consistent about practice.